Analysis: Gold Sees Rare Worst Drop in Nearly 20 Years, Surging US Treasury Yields Rattle Precious Metals Market
Odaily reports: The Kobeissi Letter posted on X that gold prices plummeted, recording an extremely rare single-day drop not seen in nearly 20 years. Since 2006, gold's average daily change has been a gain of 0.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.19%. Today's decline corresponds to a Z-score of -2.90, placing it at the extreme left tail of the return distribution. The Kobeissi Letter added that, assuming a normal distribution, the probability of such a single-day drop occurring is approximately 0.2%, or roughly once every two years on average. The analysis suggests that surging US Treasury yields are exerting an unusual impact on the precious metals market.
Gold saw a rare ~20-year single-day drop as surging US Treasury yields hit precious metals, signaling higher real-rate/interest-rate pressure; because BTC and gold both are non-yielding assets, rising yields lift the opportunity cost of holding crypto, weighing on valuations and risk appetite, so crypto is short-term bearish (medium).