SpaceX Could Buy Tesla for $480 Per Share in $3.74 Trillion Merger, RBC Says

RBC Capital Markets says SpaceX could acquire Tesla at $480 per share in a deal valuing the combined company at $3.74 trillion. Under RBC's model, Tesla shareholders would hold 48% of the merged company, down from 54% in July when RBC modeled a $3.31 trillion combination. That shift implies SpaceX shareholders would own about 52%, giving SpaceX investors roughly $422 billion more in implied value while Tesla holders' stake would remain about $1.8 trillion. RBC notes the $480 price is roughly a 30% premium for Tesla and models an all-stock transaction paid in SpaceX shares, with final value depending on share prices and deal terms. The bank highlights potential synergies from combining Tesla's robotics and manufacturing with SpaceX's AI infrastructure and Terafab semiconductor plans but says it has no knowledge of an actual transaction. Critics warn arbitrage could erode any premium; prediction markets and analysts see low near-term announcement odds. Tesla shares rose ~3% to $367 and SpaceX ~2% to $150. SpaceX reports earnings Oct. 20; Tesla Oct. 21.