Analysis: Spot buying has not yet followed through, and Bitcoin's rebound lacks funding to take over

Despite a quick rebound and sustained gains in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market after a morning drop on Wednesday, the market still lacks new leveraged capital and strong spot demand, indicating that the current rally is not yet firmly grounded. Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest remained largely flat at $53.4 billion, while open interest for tokens such as SOL, HYPE, DOGE, and NEAR also stayed flat or declined slightly. On Wednesday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $74 million, following cumulative net outflows exceeding $400 million over the previous two trading days, with Coinbase Premium still in negative territory. In the past 24 hours, the total value of short positions liquidated in cryptocurrency futures reached $450 million, with Bitcoin short liquidations accounting for about $300 million—the highest level since September 21—indicating that the recent rally has been largely driven by short covering rather than continuous inflow of fresh capital. Marex analysts stated that the first leg of BTC's recovery above $80,000 was primarily fueled by short covering, and the next phase will require inflows of spot capital and a healthier derivatives positioning structure to sustain momentum; Indian FIU-registered platform Giottus views this move as a corrective bounce and remains awaiting further confirmation signals of a trend reversal.