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2026-09-29

  • Bitcoin's second-round rally peak realized profit drops 19%, profit-taking weaker than August

    According to Odaily, citing monitoring by Axel Adler Jr, although Bitcoin's price rose further to around $87,000, market profit-taking was weaker than in August. During the second-round rally peak, market realized profit was 19% lower than at the first-round rally peak, and realized losses also declined.

    At the first-round rally peak on August 26, Bitcoin's price was approximately $78,600, with 7-day realized profit reaching $9.1 billion; at the second-round rally peak on September 24, Bitcoin's price rose to $84,100, with 7-day realized profit at $7.3 billion, down 19% from the previous round. During the same period, 7-day realized losses dropped from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. As of September 28, Bitcoin's 7-day net realized profit stood at $4.3 billion.

    Short-term holder SOPR has remained above 1 since August 20, meaning Bitcoin transferred by short-term holders remains profitable overall, though profit margins have narrowed. At the August 26 peak, short-term holder SOPR corresponded to a profit margin of 2.8%; at the September 23 peak, it dropped to 1.6%; and as of September 28, it fell further to 1%. During Bitcoin's pullback to $76,500 on September 17, short-term holder SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, with the profit margin on Bitcoin transferred by short-term holders briefly narrowing to 0.3%, but it did not break below 1.

  • The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Ohio and Tennessee may enforce gambling laws against Kalshi

    On September 25, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled that Ohio and Tennessee may enforce state gambling laws on the sports contracts of prediction market platform Kalshi. The court upheld the Ohio federal judge's decision to deny blocking state regulators from enforcement, and vacated the protective order previously granted to Kalshi in Tennessee. The court held that Kalshi failed to prove that its sports contracts are swap contracts under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); even if they constitute swaps, federal law would not preclude the application of the two states' gambling laws. The court cited Kalshi's previous litigation statements and platform rulebook to reject its claim of comprehensive federal preemption. The ruling is at the temporary injunction stage and does not require Kalshi to stop offering contracts, but the two states may enforce their laws during the pendency of the case. Kalshi's current record in federal appellate courts is 1 win and 2 losses, with an appeal involving Maryland still pending in the Fourth Circuit. (Bitcoin.com News)
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  • SlowMist's Cos: Chainflip bridge blocks North Korean hacker money laundering, but AML/KYT speed lags behind

    Odaily report: According to monitoring by SlowMist's Cos, the Chainflip bridge is attempting to block North Korean hacker money laundering, but the response speed of AML/KYT lags behind the speed of money laundering. Money laundering groups use automation to split funds into large numbers of small amounts, transferring them across chains through various bridges; if funds are intercepted or returned by risk controls, they immediately try the next money laundering path, ultimately converting to BTC and continuing to obfuscate the source of funds through CoinJoin. This money laundering operation is still continuously evolving.

  • South Korean ruling party lawmakers call for delay in crypto taxation, government still insists on implementation as scheduled

    Odaily: Min Byung-deok, a senior member of the policy committee of South Korea's ruling Democratic Party, said that crypto taxation should only be introduced after the Framework Act on Digital Assets is passed, and that it is not appropriate to start levying taxes before the underlying law is in place. He pointed out that difficulties in tracking income from overseas trading platforms and the inability to carry over investment losses reflect that the conditions for tax administration are not yet mature.

    The South Korean government still insists on implementing the virtual asset income tax as scheduled. Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il said that the current tax law stipulates that virtual asset income will be taxed starting next year, and about 85% of investors hold less than 5 million won, so after deducting the basic exemption of 2.5 million won, most investors will not need to pay taxes or will face a relatively low tax burden. Under the current rules, income from the transfer or lending of virtual assets is subject to a 20% tax rate on annual net gains, losses may not be carried forward, and the actual filing and payment window is expected to open in May 2028.

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  • Analysis: The market entered a pullback, with the share of large-scale put option trades reaching one-third.

    According to analysis by Greeks.live, the market has entered a pullback, with the trading share of large put options reaching one-third. The implied volatility (IV) for major option maturities has slightly decreased compared to the previous two weeks. During this recent rally, IV did not rise significantly and has now fallen to around 35%. From the options data perspective, the current situation aligns more with a rebound in the mid-stage bear market. Market participants have low expectations for volatility; even slight volatility prompts them to sell volatility.
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  • ZEC saw $28.73 million in liquidations over the past 12 hours, ranking first across the entire network

    According to CoinGlass data, over the past 12 hours, ZEC liquidation amount reached $28.7393 million, ranking first across the entire network; during the same period, ETH and BTC liquidation amounts were $15.5803 million and $15.0754 million, respectively.

    In addition, according to OKX market data, ZEC has dropped more than 10% in 24 hours and is currently trading at 1397 USDT.

  • Analysis: Gold Sees Rare Worst Drop in Nearly 20 Years, Surging US Treasury Yields Rattle Precious Metals Market

    Odaily reports: The Kobeissi Letter posted on X that gold prices plummeted, recording an extremely rare single-day drop not seen in nearly 20 years. Since 2006, gold's average daily change has been a gain of 0.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.19%. Today's decline corresponds to a Z-score of -2.90, placing it at the extreme left tail of the return distribution. The Kobeissi Letter added that, assuming a normal distribution, the probability of such a single-day drop occurring is approximately 0.2%, or roughly once every two years on average. The analysis suggests that surging US Treasury yields are exerting an unusual impact on the precious metals market.


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  • Odaily Morning Brief

    1. Citrini Analyst: Anthropic's growth has declined significantly, with ARR increasing only 1.8% quarter-over-quarter;

    2. Polymarket's probability of "Anthropic IPO before November 15" is now at 35%, up 16% in 24 hours;

    3. BlockTower founder claims Coinbase covered up over $1 billion in hack losses;

    4. MistTrack: Bitget attacker attempted to move stolen funds through Chainflip, but deposits were rejected and returned;

    5. Return rate of 884%: an address deposited 9,000 QNT to Coinbase and Kraken after holding for 7 years;

    6. Pons is about to launch social trading features;

    7. On-chain researcher: Strategy-related BTC transfers are merely routine internal fund reallocation by Fidelity custody, not a sale;

    8. Loss of $1.248 million: Hyperliquid whale Boomer stopped out of a $31.1 million altcoin long position before switching to shorting ZEC and NEAR.




  • Verona AI's agent stablecoin verUSD secures over $100 million in institutional launch commitments

    AI Intelligence Layer Verona tweeted that its AI agent stablecoin verUSD has received over $100 million in institutional launch commitments from Animoca Ventures, Figment Capital, Sfermion, Pentos Ventures, ArkStream, and others. The official statement said that verUSD supports native minting across chains including Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, Arbitrum, and Celo, is issued via Brale, and can be redeemed through Verona.

  • Personal AI Agents Have Arrived: Businesses That Make Money from “Consumers Being Too Bothered” Are in Danger

    A newly established AI company, only about a year old, has already reached a valuation of $10 billion. Just now, personal AI Agent company Instinct announced it has completed a $1 billion funding round, with Sequoia Capital, Benchmark, and Coatue all investing. Even more strikingly, Instinct's founder Noah Shinn recently revealed in an interview that their user base once grew at a daily rate of 10%. Why? Because Instinct isn't aiming to build an AI that just chats with you—it wants to create a genuine personal agent capable of actually doing things for you. The upcoming feature they're rolling out might start making a lot of companies anxious. Previously, many companies bet on your reluctance to go through trouble or take action. Small losses of just a few dollars, or multi-step processes, seemed
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  • Morgan Stanley: The Federal Reserve's rate hike magnitude may be lower than market expectations

    On September 29, Morgan Stanley interest rate strategists stated in a report that after the Federal Reserve's rate hike in September, it is expected to raise rates once more in December and again in March of next year. Market pricing currently indicates a more aggressive rate hike over the next 12 months. The strategists noted that uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve, economic growth, corporate bond issuance, and oil price trends are driving up expectations for further monetary tightening over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley believes the actual degree of tightening by the Federal Reserve will not reach the level anticipated by the market, as key factors influencing the Fed's policy path will only become clearer later this year. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), money markets currently expect cumulative rate hikes of 100 basis points by the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months.
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  • Ethereum spot ETF saw total net inflow of $17.0959 million yesterday, marking 7 consecutive days of net inflows

    According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $17.0959 million yesterday (September 28, US Eastern Time). The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow yesterday was BlackRock's ETF ETHA, with a single-day net inflow of $15.3539 million, bringing ETHA's cumulative total net inflow to $13.299 billion. It was followed by 21Shares ETF TETH, with a single-day net inflow of $1.742 million, bringing TETH's cumulative total net inflow to $32.8813 million.

  • Bitcoin Spot ETF saw a total net inflow of 31.07M USD yesterday, marking a 8 days of consistent inflow

    According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a total net inflow of 31.07M USD yesterday (Eastern Time, September 28th).


    The Bitcoin Spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a daily net inflow of 54.84M USD, and the total historical net inflow of IBIT currently stands at 65.34B USD.

    The second highest was Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC, with a daily net inflow of 10.32M USD, and the total historical net inflow of BTC currently stands at 2.96B USD.

    The Bitcoin Spot ETF with the highest net outflow yesterday was Grayscale's ETF GBTC, with a daily net outflow of 23.19M USD, and the total historical net outflow of GBTC currently stands at 27.86B USD.


    As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Bitcoin Spot ETFs is 107.82B USD, with an ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization relative to the total Bitcoin market cap) of 6.42%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached 57.58B USD.



    Source: https://sosovalue.com/zh/assets/etf/us-btc-spot

  • Goldman Sachs: HOOD crypto trading volume exceeds consensus by 87%, price target raised to $145

    Goldman Sachs' September 28, 2026 research report indicated that HOOD's September crypto volume increased month-over-month by 21% to $21.9 billion, 87% above market consensus; event contract volume rose 37% month-over-month, 36% above consensus. Stock and options volume declined slightly month-over-month but remained 17% and 43% above consensus respectively. Goldman Sachs raised its net revenue forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 1%, 4%, and 4% respectively, and adjusted its earnings per share forecasts by -1%, +4%, and +3% respectively. Goldman Sachs believes a steeper yield curve is the second driver behind the revenue upgrade. The market's forward rate curve implies approximately 3.5 more rate hikes in the federal funds rate by end-2027 than previous models, supporting net interest income. The target price was raised from $144 to $145, with an unchanged Buy rating; the current stock price of $116.46 implies a 24.5% upside potential.
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  • Japan’s 40-year government bond auction sees strongest demand since 2020

    On September 29, Japan's 40-year government bond auction drew the strongest demand since 2020 as relatively high yields attracted investors. The bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 3.1, up from 2.82 in the previous auction and above the 12-month average of 2.67. Japanese government bond futures continued to rise after the auction. The 40-year bond yield was last reported at 4.23%. The debt sale comes amid growing investor concerns that the Bank of Japan may be falling behind the curve on monetary tightening. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda did not provide clear guidance on the pace of future rate hikes after the widely expected increase earlier this month, intensifying expectations that the central bank may ultimately need to raise rates more aggressively.
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  • Bitcoin holds $83,000 as ZEC drops 12% and oil climbs again

    Bitcoin slipped under 1% to just above $83,100 as of Tuesday Asian morning hours, testing the floor of last week's range, after the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007. ZEC fell 12% to about $1,380, the steepest drop among major tokens, CoinDesk data show. SOL and HYPE each lost between 3% and 4%, DOGE fell 3% and BNB 2%, while XRP dropped nearly 2%. Ether and TRX were flat. Among smaller tokens, The Graph's GRT jumped 18% and Immutable's IMX nearly 10%, according to FxPro, while UNI and BCH each fell about 10% and DASH lost 7%. Total crypto market value sat near $2.86 trillion. A widely watched crypto sentiment index stood at 74 out of 100 on Monday, just short of the "extreme greed" zone, a metric that brokerage FxPro contrasted with the fear that has gripped the stock market for the past 20 days.