Following Grayscale's recent legal victory against federal securities regulators, analysts at Bloomberg have suggested that the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be on the horizon before the close of 2023.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, shared insights on this development via a post on social media platform X. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein also weighed in on this matter in a separate report issued on August 30. They highlight ed that the Judges presiding over recent cases have unanimously dismissed the SEC's arguments, putting the agency in a difficult position for future denials as it faces looming deadlines.
Seyffart, in his own X post, indicated that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could become a reality as early as the fourth quarter of 2024. He estimated that the likelihood of approval by that time has surged to 95%. Balchunas additionally emphasized that The SEC's continued denial of a Bitcoin spot ETF is becoming politically challenging for the agency, especially given its recent legal setbacks and the public relations implications.
Over the next five days, the SEC will have its "first deadline" decision on seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications. These applications come from prominent financial institutions such as Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie. Balchunas speculated that The SEC might opt for delays in these forthcoming Bitcoin spot ETF filings. Nevertheless, he suggested that the most probable scenario is that the SEC surprises observers by reversing its stance and granting approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF all at once.
