Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines suggest, and more to do with the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures activity cools.
Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In PlaceThe slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst.
In other words, even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to ETFs, which have experienced significant outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly remain the dominant force in overall volumes.”
Darkfost pointed to net taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.”
There is, however, a tentative improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote, adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break out of its current consolidation phase.”
Demand Is Key 
Darkfost didn’t dispute that LTHs can be persistent sellers, but he emphasized a different lens. “LTHs never really stop selling in reality, but when we look at supply change, it gives a different picture,” he wrote. “It appears that their distribution has come to an end for now, meaning the amount of BTC maturing and transitioning into LTH status equals the BTC being sold by LTHs (STH buying).”
At press time, BTC traded at $87,972.
