Peter Schiff Says The Bitcoin ‘Good News’ Era Is Over In 2026

Peter Schiff is starting 2026 with a blunt message for Bitcoin holders: in his view, the trade is crowded, the “good news” is exhausted, and the unwind is already visible in the vehicles built to maximize BTC exposure.

In a Jan. 1 “Year-End Special” episode outlining his 2026 market forecasts, the renowned Bitcoin-critic argued that the cryptocurrency spent 2025 doing the one thing it wasn’t supposed to do in a year packed with pro-crypto narratives: fall. He framed that underperformance as the tell for what comes next.

“Everybody on CNBC was pounding the table on when the year began was Bitcoin,” Schiff said, describing a narrative mix that included “a Bitcoin president,” “a Bitcoin strategic reserve,” heavy corporate buying, and the growth of ETFs. “Bitcoin was one of the only things that was down on the year.”

He pointed to ETF performance to ground that claim, saying he checked where Bitcoin ETFs “closed […] because they’re done for the year,” and that they were “down just over 7.5% on the year,” even as the Nasdaq and gold posted large gains.

Then he delivered the core of his setup: “If something doesn’t go up when everybody thinks it’s going to go up, that’s a pretty good indication that it’s going to go down,” he said. “If a market can’t go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market […] and that means all that it can do is go down.”

He said Strategy finished 2025 at a new 52-week low and was “down 47.5% on the year” and “67% below its peak 52-week high,” calling it “the poster boy” for maximum BTC leverage. Schiff’s argument was not that Strategy failed to buy BTC but that the equity market was already pricing the downsides of the model.

Schiff went further, claiming Strategy’s five-year average BTC cost basis sits around $75,000, implying only a modest gain with Bitcoin near $87,000. “That’s about a 16% gain, 3% a year over 5 years,” he said, arguing it undercut the pitch that the trade is a one-way compounding machine. He also claimed Strategy could not realistically exit at its average price without slippage, framing the “profit” as fragile in a liquidation scenario.

From there, Schiff extended the thesis into 2026 market structure: if Strategy slows or stops buying, and if ETF flows flip decisively negative, marginal demand may not be there when it’s needed. “The ETFs are selling now,” he said. “They’ve gone from big Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers.”

Schiff’s broader 2026 macro call was a mix of weaker growth, stickier inflation, and intensifying political pressure on monetary policy, conditions he expects to support precious metals and pressure Bitcoin.

He argued the Fed is already effectively back in easing mode: “it just went back to quantitative easing, even though it hasn’t officially acknowledged that that’s what it’s doing” and expects further rate cuts alongside a weakening dollar. He also tied tariffs to higher consumer prices and margin pressure, forecasting a 2026 environment where “the economy is going to be weak” while “inflation is going to be strong,” a combination he called “toxic.”

Schiff’s practical conclusion for crypto listeners was direct: he urged viewers to “get rid of your Bitcoin above $87,000,” while reiterating that he expects capital to rotate toward gold and silver as “the bloom comes off that crypto […] tulip.”

At press time, BTC traded at $89,517.