Bitcoin’s roughly 5% jump on Jan. 5 landed on a clean, TV-friendly explanation: a shock political turn in Venezuela would “unlock” oil supply, push energy prices down, cool inflation, bring rate cuts forward, and lift BTC. Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen says there’s a major flaw with that.
Why This Bitcoin Theory Is WrongRasmussen’s central point is mechanical: if the rally is being driven by a sudden repricing of monetary policy expectations, it should show up in the probabilities traders are assigning to rate cuts. In his read, it didn’t.
He cited a slight dip in the implied odds of a 25 basis-point cut in January 2026 immediately after the Venezuela headlines. “Probability of a 25bps Rate Cut in Jan’26: Prior to Maduro’s Capture: 16.6%. After Maduro’s Capture: 16.1%,” Rasmussen wrote, adding that “the probability of a 25bps rate cut this month actually fell.”
Even further out, he argued, the change was marginal to nonexistent. “Probability of a 25bps Rate Cut in Dec’26: Prior to Maduro’s Capture: 19.1%. After Maduro’s Capture: 19.2%,” he wrote, framing it as “barely moved.” That’s the mismatch Rasmussen wants investors to notice: a tidy causal story was making the rounds, but the pricing in the instrument closest to that story, rate expectations, was effectively unchanged.
If not a Venezuela-to-Fed chain reaction, what explains the day’s BTC strength? Rasmussen pointed to a cluster of themes that have been building without needing a weekend headline to justify them.
Second is the regulatory backdrop. Rasmussen described a “pro-crypto regulatory shift” following the 2024 election, saying crypto markets are beginning to “feel the benefits” as wealth managers, endowments, pensions, and sovereigns get more comfortable adopting bitcoin.
Third is a broader risk-on tone tied to AI. In Rasmussen’s framing, “fears of an AI-bubble are settling,” and investors have been “piling into risk-on assets, like tech stocks and bitcoin.”
Finally, he returned to policy, just not via Venezuela. “Did Maduro’s capture materially change short-term rate cut expectations? No. Does that mean QE is out of the picture. Also no,” Rasmussen wrote, before adding: “QE is just beginning. The market was—and still is—expecting 50bps (or more) rate cuts in 2026.”
Overall, Rasmussen did not argue Venezuela is irrelevant. His conclusion was narrower: “Yes. Somewhat,” he wrote when asked whether the weekend’s events matter for bitcoin, before answering the bigger question whether it’s the main reason for the +5% move with a flat “No. Zoom Out.”
At press time, BTC traded at $93,750.
