However, not everyone is convinced that this recovery is the return of a sustained bull trend. An interesting technical analysis argues that the entire Bitcoin structure still points to weakness, warning that recent upside moves may be misleading within a larger setup.
Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Bearish Below SuperGuppyAccording to his analysis, the SuperGuppy, which combines multiple moving averages to define trend direction, should now be viewed as resistance rather than support. Clay noted that Bitcoin’s current structure looks like the previous market cycle in early 2022, where a similar relief rally occurred within a broader downtrend before the price rolled over again. Back then, the relief rally turned out to be a dead cat bounce and Bitcoin’s price action eventually reversed course.
Dead Cat Bounce Then Drop After the dead cat bounce, the analyst projected a downward move where the Bitcoin market cap falls to as low as $1.35 trillion. This scenario translates to a Bitcoin price target just below $69,000 based on the current circulating supply.
From this technical standpoint, the important condition that would weaken the bearish thesis is a sustained uptrend above the EMA 100 and a break above the SuperGuppy indicator. Without that, the analysis suggests that the dominant trend is to the downside.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $93, corresponding to gains of about 1% over the past 24 hours and 6.3% over the past seven days.
