In this article, you will see what is the expected CPI of economists. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households in the United States. The report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly and is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and economists.
What is the Expected CPI of Economists?
Economists are expecting January's headline inflation to jump 0.5% M/M, up from a revised +0.1% in the prior month. On a Y/Y basis, headline CPI is expected to climb 6.2%, down from 6.5% in December. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, what's referred to as core CPI, inflation is expected to rise 0.3% M/M vs. +0.4% in the revised December reading, and 5.5% Y/Y compared with 5.7%.
Matthew Tuttle, CEO and chief investment officer at Tuttle Capital Management, said he expects the reading "to reflect what everyone is already theorizing — that inflation has peaked, at least short-term, and it's come down. I wouldn't be shocked to see it slightly below the 6.2% Y/Y (consensus) to maybe 6.1%."
Specifically, Tuttle will be looking at used-car prices and market rents. Speaking about used-car prices, "There's been an assumption that those are going to continue to decline," so it will be telling if that trend continues.
Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States is expected to be 304.75 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.
What can be Expected from CPI Data Release?
Of all the macroeconomic trends that the world has faced since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic over two years ago, inflation has perhaps been one of the greatest causes for concern. Central Banks from Japan to the United States have struggled to adapt their monetary policies to the tidal wave of rising prices; American Consumer Price Index data release could shed some light on whether the Federal Reserve has gotten any closer toward its stated goal of keeping inflation under control.
The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, will give market participants another reading into how the Federal Reserve is faring in its battle against inflation. Whether it runs hotter and cooler than expected will be just one data point considered when the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee makes its interest rate decision at its March 21-22 meeting.
Bottom Line
So while the pace of inflation may be falling, it seems to be coming down slower than expected. This is the key as the Fed tightens rates because the slower the inflation rate falls, the longer the Fed will need to keep rates elevated, and the higher those rates may need to go. This article discusses about what is the expected CPI of economists.
