In just 22 years, generative AI may be able to fully automate half of all work activities performed today, including tasks related to decision-making, management, and interaction with stakeholders, according to a new report from McKinsey & Company.
The Forecast Comes from a June 14 Report from the Management Consulting Firm, Predicting that 75 Percent of Value Creation from Generation AI Will Customer Service Operati ons, Marketing and Sales, Software Engineering, and R & D Jobs. The Company Explained that Recent Developments in Generation artificial intelligence have "accelerated" its "midpoint" forecast by almost a decade, from 2053 (its 2016 estimate) to 2045.
McKinsey explained that its broad range of 2030 to 2060 covers a range of outcomes – factors such as adoption rates of generating artificial intelligence, investment decisions and regulations.
Its previous range for automating 50% of jobs was 2035-2070. However, the consultancy said the pace of global adoption varies by country: "Adoption of automation is likely to be faster in advanced economies, where higher wages would make it economically viable sooner .” McKinsey estimates that generative AI systems now have the potential to automate work activities that take up 60-70% of an employee’s time.
Interestingly, the report estimates that generative AI is likely to have the "biggest impact" on well-paid workers who apply a high degree of "expertise" in the form of decision-making, management, and interaction with stakeholders. The report also predicts that the generative AI market will add $2.6 to $4.4 trillion annually to the world economy, reaching a value of up to $15.7 trillion by 2030.
The company says this will provide significant economic value on top of non-generative AI tools in mainstream use today:
“This would add 15% to 40% to the $11.0 trillion to $17.7 trillion in economic value we now estimate non-generative AI and analytics could unlock.”
Generative AI systems are capable of generating text, images, audio, and video in response to cues by taking input data and learning its patterns. OpenAI's ChatGPT is the most commonly used generative AI tool today.
McKinsey's forecast of $15.7 trillion by 2030 is more than threefold compared to the $5 trillion forecast for the virtual universe over the same period. However, the recent growth of generative AI platforms has not been without problems.
On June 12, the United Nations highlighted "serious and urgent" concerns about generative artificial intelligence tools that generate fake news and information. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was recently grilled by US senators over a "leaked" version of the company's artificial intelligence ence tool "LLaMA ", which senators claim is potentially "dangerous" and may be used for "criminal missions".
