Even amid a rush by exchange-traded fund (ETF) applicants to adjust their proposals to comply with new cash-only requirements, analysts anticipate the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States early in 2024.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas foresee the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighting a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 2024. Despite last-minute modifications by applicants striving to meet the new stipulations, Seyffart shared insights on December 21 regarding BlackRock's recent update on its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal. He noted that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF S-1 registration statement replaced certain terms, possibly to align more closely with the SEC's comfort level.
The analyst observed alterations in language, such as replacing "prime broker and trade credit lender" with "primary executing agent," signaling a shift in the framework that might resonate better with the SEC. Seyffart speculated on the potential impact of these changes, suggesting uncertainty about the SEC's acceptance of third-party buying and selling conditions in the Bitcoin Cash model.
Several applicants, including ARK, Bitwise, and Valkyrie, have pivoted to cash-only models, while others like Grayscale and WisdomTree retain physical or mixed approaches in their applications. Seyffart noted the potential discrepancy among filers, suggesting that while some may adapt to the SEC's cash-only model, others might lag behind.
Seyffart's colleague Balchunas echoed the sentiment, viewing the ongoing interactions between multiple SEC spot BTC ETF applicants as a positive indicator for January. Balchunas highlighted the nature of the discussions, emphasizing the SEC's emphasis on adherence to cash-based structures or facing prolonged waiting periods for approval.
