The expected median for the consumer price index (CPI) in October 2023, on a year-on-year basis and not seasonally adjusted, stands at 3.3%. If the CPI indeed reflects a 3.3% increase year-on-year, it will mark the first month-on-month decrease in the consumer price index since June 2023.
In the preceding month of September 2023, the consumer price index saw a year-on-year rise of 3.7%, which was slightly higher than the median estimate of 3.6%. Analyzing the past 12 months, CPI growth exceeded the anticipated median in three months, aligned precisely with the expected median in two months, and fell below the anticipated median in seven months. Over the past five years, out of 60 months, CPI growth surpassed the projected median 50% of the time, aligned with the expected median 17% of the time, and fell below the anticipated median 33% of the time.
The projected median of 3.3% is derived from six estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI forecasts range from a low of 3.20% to a high of 3.32%, indicating a difference of 12 basis points. This spread is notably narrower than the average spread over the past 12 months, which stood at 55 basis points between the lowest and highest forecasts. Moreover, it is below the average spread of 50 basis points between the highest and lowest expectations observed over the past five years (60 months).
Additionally, the anticipated median for the consumer price index, excluding food and energy components (known as core CPI) on a year-on-year, not seasonally adjusted basis, is estimated at 4.1%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the data for October CPI and core CPI tomorrow, November 14.
