The commencement of the Bitcoin bull run was officially declared by the anonymous quant PlanB on March 1, the creator of the contentious Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used to predict Bitcoin prices. As per PlanB's X post, referencing S2F charts, the accumulation phase and favorable Bitcoin buying opportunities have concluded. The analyst stated, "The bull market has begun. If history repeats itself, we should expect approximately 10 months of FOMO (fear of missing out): notable price surges accompanied by multiple -30% declines." This assertion comes shortly after Bitcoin surpassed $60,000 for the first time in over two years, with Bitcoin experiencing a 0.75% decrease to $62,472 within the 24-hour period ending at 3:00 pm CET.
Despite the popularity gained by the S2F model during the 2021 bull run, it remains an imperfect predictor of Bitcoin's price movements. Notably, according to the model, Bitcoin was anticipated to surpass the $100,000 mark in early August 2021, while it was trading around $44,000. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also criticized the S2F model, stating that it provides investors with a "false sense of certainty." PlanB's forecast aligns with the expectations of other analysts. Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, noted that Bitcoin typically experiences consolidation immediately after halving events but rebounds in the subsequent months.
The recent approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has further fueled investor interest in Bitcoin and contributed to its price surge. Following the approval, Bitcoin witnessed a 3% pullback after Grayscale's Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF sold $598.9 million worth of BTC on February 29. Despite these outflows, Bitcoin prices have surged by more than 22% in the past week, according to CoinMarketCap data. Additionally, new spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $2 billion in daily trading volume for the second consecutive day on February 28, excluding Grayscale's ETF.
These new ETFs have introduced passive, price-agnostic demand to Bitcoin for the first time in its history, according to a research note shared by Bitfinex analysts. The note predicts a conservative price target of $100,000 to $120,000 for Bitcoin in Q4 2024, with the cycle peak in terms of total cryptocurrency market capitalization expected sometime in 2025.
