Despite Bitcoin's impressive 120% surge in prices this year, the anticipated "fear of missing out" (FOMO) in the bull market has yet to materialize.
According to data from the Look Into Bitcoin statistics platform, on-chain transactions are just commencing to involve "young" Bitcoin. Even though Bitcoin remains near an 18-month high, residing comfortably outside its bear market trading range and several key resistance levels, speculators, those holding BTC for the short term, have not seen significant returns on the network.
The creator of Look Into Bitcoin, Philip Swift, highlighted the realized capped HODL wave indicator (RHODL wave) in a November 16 post, underscoring its importance. The RHODL wave segments BTC into age groups of supply and compares it to the price at which it was last moved on-chain. This indicator often reflects surges in token prices during bullish phases and inversely during bearish trends, showing whether investors are reluctant to sell or are holding assets at a loss.
Swift commented on the current state of RHODL, noting, "The warm-colored low timeframe wave is just starting to increase as tokens move on-chain." Additionally, Onchained, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, has been closely examining the "age range" of Bitcoin supply. By using the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric, which reveals the profitability of token cohorts in storage, Onchained identified that those who augmented their Bitcoin exposure before the all-time highs of 2021 are still in the negative.
However, there is an important perspective for bullish holders that is looming. Onchained emphasized the significance of considering NUPL across various age groups, pointing out that the majority of UTXO age groups are presently profitable, except for those holding Bitcoin for 18 months to 3 years. This suggests that their entry points during Bitcoin's ascent to $67,000 might result in reaching a breakeven point if Bitcoin continues to climb above $39,000. CryptoQuant data indicates that only 11.6% of the overall proportion of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are currently in the red.
