Michael Saylor, executive chair of Strategy, told CNBC he expects Bitcoin to “move up smartly again toward the end of the year” as macro headwinds fade and growing corporate and institutional demand soaks up available supply. Saylor argues that public companies and ETFs are buying at a scale that removes large amounts of Bitcoin from circulation, creating upward pressure on price if that demand persists.
Why does Saylor see a year-end rally coming?
Saylor’s view is straightforward: the balance between new supply and demand has swung sharply toward buyers. He said companies that put Bitcoin on their balance sheets and ETFs acquiring BTC for institutional investors are “taking up all the natural supply,” a dynamic he believes will become more bullish once temporary macro obstacles ease. That on-air take was framed around the broader trend of corporations treating BTC as a treasury asset and ETFs as steady institutional buyers.
How much demand are companies and funds actually adding?
Recent data highlights the magnitude. An industry report compiled by River and summarized in Cointelegraph shows businesses — including public treasury companies and private firms — buying roughly 1,755 BTC per day on average in 2025, while ETFs and investment vehicles added about 1,430 BTC per day. By contrast, miner issuance is far smaller (see next section), meaning institutional flows are removing many more coins from the market than are being created daily.
Is there really a supply squeeze, or is this hype?
The supply math matters. The 2024 halving cut Bitcoin’s block reward in half; issuance now averages roughly 3.125 BTC per block, which works out to about 450 new BTC per day under normal block production — roughly half the pre-halving pace. That lower issuance, combined with heavy institutional buying and dwindling exchange reserves, is the basis for talk of a potential supply squeeze that could lift prices if demand remains firm.
What is the near-term price picture and risks?
Bitcoin has been rangebound in recent sessions — CoinGecko showed 24-hour and seven-day trading ranges in the low six-figures at the time of reporting — and the market experienced one of the year’s largest flush-outs recently, with roughly $2 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. Analysts who tracked that event argued it was driven by technical trading dynamics rather than a change in long-term fundamentals — a reminder that short-term volatility can obscure structural demand trends.
Who is doing the buying?
Public “treasury” companies lead the corporate buying story. Data aggregators show Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) among the largest corporate holders, with holdings in the low-to-mid six-hundreds of thousands of BTC, making it a dominant buyer in its own right. Such concentrated corporate demand, plus steady ETF accumulation, is central to Saylor’s thesis that supply is being absorbed faster than it’s produced.
What could derail Saylor’s outlook?
Several clear risks could prevent the predicted late-2025 move higher:
Macro shocks — tightening monetary policy or unexpected economic shocks could reverse risk appetite.
Liquidity events — large, coordinated sales or sudden falls in OTC liquidity could overwhelm demand.
Regulatory shifts — new rules affecting ETFs, custody, or corporate treasury practices could slow institutional flows.
Technical market behavior — as recent liquidations showed, derivatives and leverage can amplify downside in the short term.
What should traders and investors watch?
Keep an eye on: (1) ETF flows and reported daily buys from institutional vehicles, (2) on-chain measures such as exchange reserves (which are at multi-year lows and amplify the risk of a supply squeeze), and (3) macro indicators that could tighten risk sentiment. Together, those data points will indicate whether Saylor’s “late-year” thesis is gaining traction or getting derailed.
Conclusion
Michael Saylor’s forecast — that Bitcoin will “move up smartly again” toward the end of 2025 — is rooted in a clear, data-driven narrative: institutional and corporate appetite is large enough to absorb a meaningful share of the market’s new supply, and reduced miner issuance after the 2024 halving amplifies that effect. If ETFs and treasury buyers keep hoarding BTC while exchange reserves remain low, the market could face a genuine supply squeeze and a bullish re-rating in Q4. That said, short-term technical volatility and macro risks could still interrupt a steady climb; investors should watch flows and on-chain supply signals closely.
