Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might Not Be New: Data Points To A 2-Month Slide

Moreno pointed to the price sliding below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and he used that signal to argue a lower trading range may be on the path ahead.

Moreno said a likely bottom could sit near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%.

Market momentum is muted. Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,050 in October, and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko. Trading hovered around $88,920 as of Friday, based on available data.

Technical measures show price compression near support, and traders are watching expiry closely because a larger move could follow when those contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in some previous selloffs, and that has left price action tighter than many expected.

That steady demand has helped prevent the kind of cascading failures seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and amplified losses across the market. Because those big shocks did not occur this time, the drawdown looks more controlled, even if prices are moving down.

Some analysts still predict 2026 could bring fresh highs, citing expected US rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s tighter link to US stocks holds as macro and regulatory decisions land.

Price action has been calmer than some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are split; some expect a return to growth next year, while others are preparing for lower prices before any sustained recovery.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView