BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin may climb to fresh records if US monetary conditions loosen next year. He pointed to several possible triggers for a large increase in dollar liquidity in 2026, while also linking recent market moves to where capital flowed in 2025.
Hayes Links Bitcoin To Dollar Liquidity Government Support Sends Tech HigherHe named US President Donald Trump when pointing to policy moves that favor AI investment. That dynamic, he said, helped explain why the Nasdaq performed strongly even as Bitcoin slumped.
He added a more pointed claim about military spending. Hayes said the US will keep using its military might and that such efforts require large-scale production financed through the banking system.
That, in his view, can add to broader liquidity if the banking sector starts funding big government-backed projects. Reports have disclosed that Hayes believes these forces could force dollar liquidity higher in 2026, creating fertile ground for risk assets — including Bitcoin.
Bond yields fell and the dollar weakened, which left cash looking for a new home. That pattern is familiar: softer inflation tends to lower borrowing costs and makes investors more willing to take risk.
A Bull Case With ConditionsBased on Hayes’ logic, Bitcoin’s upside depends on ongoing fiat debasement. He frames Bitcoin as monetary technology whose value rises when fiat is weakened. That view is coherent but conditional. If central banks choose to stay tight, or if inflation flares and forces a policy shift, Hayes’ scenario may not unfold. For the time being, his forecast is a liquidity story — one that will be tested by policy choices in 2026.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
