According to Wintermute’s 2025 Digital Asset OTC Markets report, altcoin rallies last year were much shorter than traders expected, averaging about 19–20 days. That is a steep drop from the roughly 60-day runs seen in 2024.
Altcoin Open Interest DropsOpen interest in many altcoin futures contracts fell, with some coverage noting about a 55% decline in altcoin futures open interest since October.
Trading desks said lower liquidity made it harder for rallies to keep going beyond a few weeks, turning what used to be multi-month moves into short bursts.
Where narratives once pushed dozens of tokens into rallies, more capital was now concentrated in the top tier. Traders say they preferred assets where orders could be filled without dramatically moving the price.
Short, Intense Moves Replaced Long TrendsSome traders described these moves as hair-trigger events: quick upswings followed by equally rapid retracements. Liquidity bands tightened and stops were hit sooner than in past cycles.
Market participants say the path to a sustained altcoin season now requires a few things aligning. Reports indicate renewed retail interest, clearer institutional support for smaller tokens, and calmer macro markets could help.
Outlook For 2026Based on the report and market commentary, a broader crypto rebound in 2026 depends on several moving parts: interest from institutions, shifts in macro rates, and retail returning to risk-on strategies.
If those elements arrive, rallies might last longer than the 19–20 day average seen in 2025. If not, traders say the pattern of quick, sharp moves into the majors will continue.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
