The seven to 11-year timeframe Bons outlined for Bitcoin’s collapse is tied directly to its halving schedule. According to the industry expert, the cost of attacking the Bitcoin network for a sustained period could fall into territory that makes such attacks financially attractive within two to three more halvings.
If miner payouts are low enough, Bons believes the potential rewards from hitting multiple exchanges or protocols could outweigh the cost of carrying out the attack. The most realistic scenario for this to happen is through double-spend attacks against exchanges.
An attacker controlling 51% of the entire mining power could deposit Bitcoin, trade it for another asset, withdraw those funds, and then roll back the blockchain to reclaim the original coins.
He also highlights data showing that Bitcoin’s security budget relative to its total market value has been trending downward for years. This means Bitcoin does not automatically become safer as it grows larger.
This leaves Bitcoin facing an eventual breaking point. From here, it is either the network increases its fixed 21 million supply cap to restore miner incentives, a move that would likely split the chain, or the entire Bitcoin ecosystem accepts the risk of double-spend attacks.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
