“This resulted in widespread miner capitulation earlier in the cycle than historical norms.”
Addressing claims that the cycle itself has broken down, Canary Capital maintains:
The analysis further challenges assumptions that new investment vehicles have neutralized miner influence, noting: “The claim that ETFs and DATs will unlock enough new institutional and retail capital to eliminate the role of miners is simply not true, at least not this cycle. Over the long term, perhaps, but not now. While improved access has increased demand across investor classes, behavior matters just as much as availability.”
FAQ ⏰ Why did the bitcoin downturn arrive earlier in this cycle? Rising electricity costs, miner capitulation, and the collapse of the bitcoin basis trade accelerated selling pressure. Does the report say bitcoin’s four-year cycle is broken? No, Canary Capital states the four-year cycle remains intact despite changing market dynamics. How have ETFs affected bitcoin price behavior? ETFs improved market efficiency and access but have not eliminated miner-driven selling this cycle. What does the report expect for bitcoin after the 2025 trough? It projects recovery into 2026 driven by adoption, on-chain lending, tokenization, and payments infrastructure.
