Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection.
“Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve.
What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally“Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was.
The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.”
Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.”
For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again.
At press time, BTC traded at $89,297.
