Software Engineer and founder of various AI start ups Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) argues on X that most XRP burn projections are understated because they assume today’s low transaction fees persist even under heavy network usage. In his framing, sustained congestion on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could push fees higher via the protocol’s load-scaling mechanics, potentially destroying on the order of one billion XRP annually.
XRPL Load Factor Could Turn Fees Into A Major XRP BurnHe anchored the thread with four scenarios and daily burn estimates, starting with what he called a “standard day” of 1.2 million transactions and roughly 450 XRP burned per day. From there, he modeled “global adoption” at the stated 3,400 TPS ceiling, translating to about 293 million transactions per day at base fee and an estimated 2,937 XRP burned daily.
The more aggressive claims come when he holds transaction volume constant at that 293 million-per-day level but lifts the effective fee via congestion. In his “congestion hike” case, he assumes the load-scaled fee rises to 0.001 XRP, implying about 293,760 XRP burned per day. In a “full gridlock” case at 0.01 XRP per transaction, he estimates 2,937,600 XRP burned daily.
The thesis leans on a structural feature of XRPL fees: they are not paid out to validators or any sponsoring entity, but removed from circulation. Van Code underscored that distinction directly. “The fees aren’t paid to miners. They aren’t paid to Ripple. They are destroyed forever.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.88.
