Bitcoin is flashing signs of a more stable and resilient phase, according to a new quarterly report from Coinbase Institutional and on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, released Tuesday.
The report, Charting Crypto: 1Q 2026, said excess leverage was largely flushed from the market during last year’s fourth-quarter selloff, leaving Bitcoin less vulnerable to cascading liquidations and better positioned to absorb macroeconomic shocks.
Rather than signaling the start of a renewed speculative rally, the analysis suggests Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset, shaped by global liquidity conditions, institutional positioning, and deliberate portfolio rebalancing.
The authors frame the current environment as one in which durability matters more than speed.
That shift marks a departure from earlier market cycles dominated by retail momentum and leveraged trading. Instead, the report points to a more disciplined market structure, supported by liquidity but constrained by defensive positioning from professional investors.
“We believe that crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier state, with excess leverage having been flushed from the system in Q4,” the authors wrote. “The macro environment looks sound, and monetary policy should be supportive.”
One of the report’s key forward-looking indicators is Coinbase’s custom Global M2 Money Supply Index, which the firms say has historically led Bitcoin’s price by roughly 110 days.
The index remains positively aligned with the current quarter, suggesting near-term support for the world’s largest crypto, though researchers warned that money supply growth is expected to moderate later in the period.
Open interest in Bitcoin options, meanwhile, has overtaken perpetual futures, with investors increasingly paying for downside protection rather than adding directional leverage, a signal that hedging has replaced aggressive risk-taking.
“This week's market landscape presents an intriguing dilemma for directional and day traders,” Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of crypto exchange VALR, told Decrypt. “With the Fed's rate decision, inflation data, political risks, and trade tensions converging, the market faces too many unpredictable factors to favor leverage-heavy trading or upside hunting.”
On-chain data show a similar pattern.
Bitcoin activity picked up late last year, with coins changing hands at a much faster pace, while the share of long-held supply edged lower, in a sign that investors were reallocating positions rather than exiting the market outright.
The report also found that investor sentiment has weakened since October, slipping from optimism to caution and remaining subdued, as shown by on-chain measures of unrealized gains and losses.
Taken together, the signals suggest Bitcoin may be entering a phase defined by slower price discovery and tighter links to macroeconomic conditions.
Still, the authors cautioned that a slowdown in liquidity growth, renewed inflationary pressures, or geopolitical shocks could test whether the market’s newfound stability holds.
Bitcoin is up 1.2% on the day to $89,000 and remains flat over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko data.
