The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market’s largest cryptocurrency.
Rate Cut Odds FadeSuch a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price.
That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed’s policy meetings.
The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision.
Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision ZoneAt current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven.
BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater.
Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests that long‑term holders remain firmly in profit and largely unshaken by recent volatility.
BitBull argues if the Bitcoin price can maintain support above the $87,500 level, it would indicate that active capital is defending its position and that broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level, however, could open the door for a move toward $80,700.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
