Since assets are typically priced in U.S. dollars, a collapsing dollar index should logically inflate the valuation of risk and safe-haven assets. However, Bitcoin's stagnation in 2026 and a sustained downtrend in the last quarter of the previous year have confused investors.
“Bitcoin’s recent stagnation reflects a market that’s still trading macro first, narrative second,” Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, told Decrypt.
While gold and commodities are drawing flows as traditional havens, Bitcoin is currently behaving more like a "high-beta risk asset"—meaning it moves in sync with speculative stocks—rather than a direct hedge against dollar weakness, Cai said.
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin highlights the market’s perception of a long-standing inflation hedge versus a digital gold narrative that is less than two decades old.
"Gold, as a mature and well-established asset, is unmistakable in the signal it sends," Ben Caselin, CMO of South African crypto exchange VALR, told Decrypt.
He explained that as more local currencies face pressure and the dollar declines, both assets stand to benefit. "One significant acceleration in gold followed by significant profit-taking is enough to spark a significant Bitcoin rally," Caselin added.
Still, gold's rally is not bad news for Bitcoin, nor is the top crypto’s consolidation.
Crypto sentiment remains favorableEric He, LBank’s Community Angel Officer and Risk Control Adviser, argued that Bitcoin “isn't stalling; it's coiling for the next explosive leg higher,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency is “poised to reclaim digital-gold status as adoption and clarity accelerate.”
“Short-term macro is favoring physical havens amid fiat erosion,” he added, “but this isn't a thesis breakdown.”
