Is the US Dollar Dominant or Doomed? Analysts Read the Same Data—Very Differently

Campbell, who now leads Rose AI and publishes macro commentary through his Campbell Ramble newsletter, emphasizes that global finance continues to operate within a dollar-centric system. He points to the depth of U.S. capital markets, military backing, and institutional credibility as factors that sustain dollar demand.

He further contends that recent dollar declines are modest in historical context, noting that the U.S. Dollar Index remains well above levels seen during earlier periods of sustained dollar weakness. In his view, narratives of collapse are disconnected from longer-term price ranges.

Campbell said:

“If you want to know whether the dollar doom is real, watch the flows. Are Europeans actually liquidating their SPX? Are Japanese pension funds selling Treasuries? Or are they just talking about it at Davos dinner parties while maintaining their allocations? So far, it’s mostly talk.”

Girnus wrote:

“You don’t pay down 134% debt-to-GDP. You inflate it away. You devalue the currency it’s denominated in. Not default, but rather policy.”

Girnus also raises concerns about Federal Reserve independence, citing dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee and growing alignment between fiscal and monetary objectives.

The contrast highlights a broader debate facing markets in 2026—whether reserve-currency status guarantees long-term resilience or simply enables a controlled adjustment over time.