Polymarket’s Success Fuels Legitimacy of Onchain Prediction Markets, Says Tech Entrepreneur

Amit Mahensaria, founder of PRED, argues that the sports betting industry is at a tipping point as decentralized, peer‑to‑peer platforms challenge the traditional “house always wins” model.

For decades, the sports betting industry has operated under a cynical, century-old mathematical law: the house always wins. While centralized bookmakers have enjoyed a global monopoly, they have maintained it through high commissions and a “predatory” relationship with their most successful users.

However, according to Amit Mahensaria—founder of PRED and former CEO of Upgrad Campus—the industry has hit a decisive tipping point. After two decades of scaling technology ventures, Mahensaria is pivoting to the intersection of decentralized tech and engagement, aiming to dismantle the traditional “casino” model in favor of a peer-to-peer (P2P) revolution.

The core of Mahensaria’s vision for PRED lies in a fundamental shift in the underlying mathematics of the trade. In a traditional sportsbook, the loss of the user is the primary revenue stream for the company.

“Let me make this concrete,” Mahensaria explains. “At a traditional sportsbook, you risk $110 to win $100. That 10% ‘vig’ is an enormous headwind over hundreds of bets. On a peer-to-peer exchange, users trade directly with each other. Our target spread is under 1%.”

For high-skilled traders, this is a paradigm shift. Mahensaria also highlights a “dirty secret” of the industry: traditional books often limit or ban users who are consistently profitable.

However, the sector still faces scrutiny over insider trading. Critics argue that a lack of regulatory framework allows well-connected participants to exploit non-public information. A primary case in point occurred during the 2026 seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, where a Polymarket user placed a significant “ouster” bet just hours before U.S. special forces acted.

Mahensaria agrees this is a legitimate concern. “When someone trades on non-public information… it harms market integrity,” he asserts. To combat this, he believes sports, stocks, and elections are the three categories where third-party independent bodies can be deployed to prevent manipulation.

“Most material sports information, like injuries and lineup changes, becomes public quickly. The windows for exploiting truly inside information are narrow,” Mahensaria notes.

Will decentralized platforms completely replace the old guard? While possible in theory, Mahensaria believes it is unlikely to happen in “our lifetimes.” Traditional sportsbooks possess massive distribution and regulatory relationships built over decades.