Bitcoin’s bear-market turn can be traced to Oct. 10, 2025, a session widely described as the largest crypto derivatives liquidation event on record, with roughly $19 billion in futures positions forcibly unwound as prices slid sharply off their highs.
Why October 10 Was The Bitcoin Bear Market Beginning“Liquidity destruction in an already uncertain crypto market environment is not conducive to a return of speculation, which is nonetheless a key component of the crypto market,” he added.
That view resonated with Bitcoin Capital, which replied that “nothing has been the same after 10/10,” adding that “it actually feels like something broke.” Darkfost’s response was blunt about the path back: “It needs to be rebuilt and it can takes months …”
In a follow-up post, Darkfost widened the lens beyond derivatives, describing an environment where spot participation has also cooled. He said Bitcoin is entering a fifth consecutive month of correction, with the October 10 event as a major driver due to its impact on futures liquidity, but “not the only factor at play.”
Spot volumes, he argued, tell a similar story of disengagement. Since October, BTC spot volumes have been cut roughly in half, with Binance still holding the largest share at $104 billion. He contrasted that with October levels when Binance volume “had nearly reached $200B,” alongside $53 billion on Gate.io and $47 billion on Bybit.
Darkfost characterized the contraction as a return to “levels among the lowest observed since 2024,” and read it as weaker demand rather than simply a lull in activity. The current setup, he wrote, “remains uncertain and does not encourage risk-taking,” arguing that a durable recovery would require monitoring liquidity conditions and, “above all,” seeing spot trading volumes return.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,723.
