XRP is flashing a familiar on-chain stress pattern after slipping below its aggregate holder cost basis, a move Glassnode says has historically coincided with capitulation, loss realization, and a slow grind toward stabilization rather than an immediate rebound.
SOPR prints below 1 are typically read as the market spending coins at a loss on aggregate, a regime that can persist when sellers are forced to exit and bids are primarily coming from buyers with longer horizons. In Glassnode’s framing, that’s what makes the current setup rhyme with a prior XRP cycle: “This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.”
XRP Capitulation Or Breakdown Next?Some market participants treated the sub-1 SOPR regime less as a red flag and more as a process of transferring supply from weaker hands to stronger ones. One reply, from the account @investorie, framed it explicitly as a bottom-building signal:
“This is a classic capitulation signal, not a structural failure. SOPR below 1 means weak hands are exiting at a loss. That pressure gets absorbed, and historically it’s how durable bases form, not how long-term trends end.”
Another respondent, 0xsimba, drew a parallel to Bitcoin’s forced-selling episodes while echoing Glassnode’s historical comparison: “When SOPR drops below 1 for extended period, pain transferring from weak to strong hands. Sep 2021–May 2022 precedent, Prolonged consolidation then recovery. Setup is forming. Signal needs confirmation.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.4225.
