Bitcoin’s latest drawdown from its all-time high is being compared to 2022 across crypto Twitter (the similarities are obvious), but some technicians argue the similarity is mostly superficial. In a series of posts, TexasWest Capital CEO Christopher Inks said the current move looks like a completed five-wave decline tied to a positioning washout, not the kind of structurally driven breakdown that defined the 2022 unwind.
Bitcoin Vs. 2022: Similar Chart, Different Story?
Inks also separated the catalysts. The 2022 breakdown coincided with the TerraUSD depeg and ensuing market dislocation, a reflexive shock that tightened collateral and impaired liquidity across venues. By contrast, he framed last week’s selling as risk reduction rather than crisis fallout.
“Does this guarantee that the low is in? Of course not, but if you’re comparing two events then you should compare how they occurred and not just that the price action looks kinda similar,” he added. “That way, if price does something other than what it did last time you won’t be running around in disbelief screaming ‘manipulation’ and ‘what’s going on!’”
He also tied the move to rates positioning. Inks pointed to a two-year Treasury note futures chart that, in his view, remained coiled rather than breaking higher alongside the risk-off episode, another data point supporting the idea that last week’s selling was “pre-resolution positioning rather than post-crisis fallout.”
With regards to the lower timeframes (1-hour chart), Inks urged for patience: “Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways around the weekly pivot, within the range shown. Not surprising after Friday’s strong recovery. Takes time to build confidence after something like that. And if you are hoping the low is in, then that’s what you should prefer to see rather than continued move straight up without building bases to provide support on pullbacks.”
At press time, BTC traded at $68,639.
