“Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands,” said Ella Seijsener, director of licensing and supervision at the Ksa. “These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.”
Citing the “social risks” of prediction market offerings, “for example, the potential influence on elections,” Seijsener said that the platform “constitutes illegal gambling.” She added that, “Anyone without a Ksa license has no business in our market. This also applies to these new gambling platforms.”
The controversy surrounding the sector centers on a core dispute where prediction market operators insist they are not gambling platforms, while regulators in multiple jurisdictions argue that allowing users to stake money on uncertain real-world outcomes amounts to betting. As these markets expand into politics, sports and macroeconomic events, authorities are increasingly questioning whether they fall within existing gambling laws.
Polymarket did not respond to a request to comment.
“If we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling,” he said at the time.
Regulatory headwindsJan Scheele, board member at the Blockchain Netherlands Foundation, said the Dutch action is consistent with the country’s traditionally strict regulatory posture. “This would not be considered unusual in the Dutch context,” he said, adding that the Netherlands has “a reputation for applying relatively strict standards when it comes to licensing requirements and regulatory compliance, including in emerging sectors such as crypto and digital assets.”
Authorities generally expect companies to secure the appropriate permissions before offering services to Dutch users and to demonstrate ongoing compliance with consumer protection and anti-money laundering rules, he added.
Dutch regulators tend to adopt a proactive enforcement stance where they believe companies are operating without authorization or in breach of legal obligations, Scheele said. “It reflects a regulatory culture that prioritises consumer protection and systemic integrity over a more permissive, innovation-first approach.”
From a regulatory standpoint, he added, authorities typically focus on what a product enables users to do rather than how it is labeled. If users can stake value on uncertain real-world events and receive a financial return if they are correct, that can resemble a bet in economic and behavioral terms, even if the interface resembles a trading platform and transactions are settled via crypto-assets.
At the same time, Scheele noted that some prediction markets may serve informational purposes by aggregating dispersed knowledge and signaling expectations about future developments. In theory, such markets could support decision-making or risk management beyond entertainment wagering. However, under current Dutch law, the potential informational benefits do not override licensing requirements if the activity qualifies as gambling.
