Bitwise Asset Management has asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve six exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that would let investors wager on the outcomes of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election—straight from their brokerage accounts.
Wall Street’s Election Bet: Bitwise Seeks Approval for Prediction Shares ETFsThe regulatory backdrop has shifted. In early 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pulled back earlier efforts to restrict political event contracts, opening the door to broader adoption. Still, the SEC has not approved any such ETF, and state gambling laws, fraud concerns, and post-Chevron court scrutiny add uncertainty.
The catch is obvious: These are binary trades. If the predicted party wins, shares could pay out handsomely. If not, investors could lose nearly all their capital. The prospectus labels them “highly risky,” and critics argue they blur the line between hedging political exposure and straight-up gambling.
FAQ ⏰ What are Bitwise’s Predictionshares ETFs?They are proposed funds tied to binary outcomes in the 2026 congressional midterms and the 2028 presidential election. How would these election ETFs work?They use swaps referencing CFTC-regulated event contracts that pay $1 if a specified outcome occurs and $0 if it does not. Are prediction market ETFs risky?Yes, they are high-risk, binary investments that can lose nearly all value if the forecasted result is wrong. Has the SEC approved these funds?No, the SEC has not yet approved any election-based prediction market ETF.
