Tony Severino, a Charted Market Technician and Bitcoin trader, was among the rare few analysts who accurately pinpointed the peak in Bitcoin both in terms of timing and at what price.
In a recent X Space, Severino shared his official target for the bear market bottom in BTCUSD. The target includes at what price level the top cryptocurrency is expected to reach, when it will happen, and what the total percentage drawdown will be before it is “all said and done.”
Tony Severino, CMT Calls For $34,000 Bitcoin In October 2026Severino, who is a highly-trained technical analyst focusing on cycles, patterns, and psychology, expects the bear market to end later this year around October 2026. Perhaps more importantly, the price prediction aspect is the result of what Severino expects to be a roughly -72% max drawdown. This figure takes BTCUSD to around $34,000 per coin.
The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.
The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.
Why The Price Prediction Matters – A Transparent Track Record Tony even suggested Bitcoin would bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart, then warned Bitcoin was topping out once again when it reached $126K in late October.
Closed my remaining short for now and just hedged long with a tiny position
