Now, a handful of analysts are saying the worst of the selling may finally be over — though what comes next is far from exciting.
No Crash, No Boom — Just PatienceA small bounce toward the mid-$70,000 range is possible. But Woo was clear — that kind of move would almost certainly be pushed back down before it gains any real footing.
His best guess for when the bearish trend actually ends is Q4 2026. A genuine bull run, he said, probably won’t return until Q1 or Q2 of 2027.
This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.
Woo also flagged something that doesn’t show up in Bitcoin’s price chart. Both spot and futures market liquidity are deteriorating at the same time.
That combination, he said, has never historically produced a real Bitcoin rally. Until one or both of those conditions improve, any upward movement is likely to be temporary.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan had a straightforward answer to that question. Forget the theories about market manipulation or fears over quantum computing breaking crypto encryption.
Some had no particular reason beyond wanting out. “They are mostly done selling, and we are in the process of bottoming,” he wrote on X.
The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else.
The real reason bitcoin is down is that a…
Spring Will ComeNew all-time highs will come, he added. “This is a classic crypto winter, and there will be a classic crypto spring.”
For now, Woo’s analysis offers the most grounded take on where things stand. The selling has slowed. The market is catching its breath. But with liquidity still weak and no clear catalyst on the horizon,
Bitcoin’s path forward looks less like a comeback and more like a long, quiet wait — one that, by his own estimate, won’t end until the final months of 2026 at the earliest.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
