Now, following US strikes on Iran on Saturday, Bitcoin has once again reacted to the downside. The question raised by Pillows is whether the same post-shock recovery pattern will play out again.
In April 2024, after Iran struck Israel, Bitcoin dropped 8% overnight and recovered within two days. In October 2024, a 3% drop was erased within 24 hours.
In June 2025, US strikes led to a 6% decline that was recovered by Sunday, followed by a 62% rally over the next two months to new all-time highs in October. Interestingly, the initial move lower in each case occurred before traditional financial markets reopened.
Market Already Deeply CorrectedPanic selling in previous instances followed the geopolitical event itself. This time, however, much of the forced selling and deleveraging appears to have occurred before the strike. Based on this caveat, weak hands have largely exited and excess leverage has already been cleared. Therefore, Bitcoin may not sustain prolonged downside from the tensions and could stabilize sooner than in previous episodes.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
