GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors dip then rebound amidst Iran War; BTC at $66k HYPE wins the weekend, rallying 20%+ to $30 while HIP-3 sees record OI Bitcoin ETFs saw $787M in net inflows last week US declares Anthropic as supply chain risk after negotiations on how the US could use Claud fell through Paradigm announced a new $1.5B fund focused on AI & Robotics 🪖 Bitcoin Crashes, Rebounds During Early Hours of Iran War What HappenedEarly Saturday, US and Israeli forces launched coordinated missile strikes on Iran targeting nuclear, missile, and naval infrastructure.
President Trump confirmed “major combat operations” and urged Iranians to overthrow the regime.
Iran retaliated with missiles targeting Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and US bases in Iraq. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency.
Iranian state media later confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes, along with 40 senior officials.
Crypto markets absorbed it all in real time.
BTC dropped from roughly $65,500 to $63,000 within hours. The total crypto market cap fell by $128B with $449M in longs liquidated.
Then, as Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death, BTC shot back to $68,196 in a major recovery rally.
As of this morning, it’s back to $66,300.
The HYPE token rallied from $26 to $32 through weekend trading.
️ What They’re Saying“Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading 24/7, so it absorbed all the selling pressure that would normally spread across equities, bonds, and commodities. The real price discovery happens Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.” - Hayden Hughes, Tokenize Capital
“With a lot of the leverage already cleared out and exhausted sellers, there’s only so much impact macro events can have.” - Justin d’Anethan, Arctic Digital
“Where price discovery happens when TradExchanges sleep.” - Arthur Hayes, responding to Hyperliquid’s weekend volume surge
🧠 Why It MattersThe crypto bear market going into this weekend was already ugly. BTC is down roughly 50% from its October 2025 ATH above $126,000.
Fear and Greed was sitting at 14. ETF flows had flipped to net sellers in February.
And then the biggest geopolitical shock in years hits on a Saturday.
BTC dropped less than 4%. That was the signal.
Heading into April 2024, when Iran first fired missiles at Israel, BTC dropped about 6%. Then over subsequent months it broke to new all-time highs. The June 2025 strike on Iranian nuclear sites pushed BTC below $100K briefly before it ripped.
The pattern is consistent: war shocks trigger sell-offs, then the macro digestion reverses them. The question this time is whether the 50%-off ATHs and bear market make it different.
Two things to monitor: the Strait of Hormuz and the ETF bid.
If Iran’s IRGC retaliates by threatening the strait, through which about 20% of global oil passes daily, you get an inflation shock that would keep the Fed on hold indefinitely and crush risk assets broadly, crypto included. Goldman Sachs is already predicting Oil will hit $100/barrel if this war goes on for 4 weeks as Trump said it might on Sunday.
On the other hand, if Khamenei’s death accelerates regime destabilization and traders read it as shortening the conflict, the relief bid continues.
Monday’s ETF flows will be the first signal.
The Hyperliquid story is the other one to watch longer term.
Its HIP-3 open interest (where TradFi assets can be trading around the clock) hit an all-time high above $1.1B. Hyperliquid infrastructure is becoming the 24/7 layer for all asset classes, not just tokens.
And it was the big winner of the weekend.
Now we wait for what’s in store this week…
