The chart accompanying his post shows Bitcoin’s multi-year price action alongside long-term moving average clouds. The red and blue bands illustrate how price tends to trade above these moving averages during uptrends and below them during extended downtrends. Each previous bear market phase began with a loss of the 2-day 200 MA structure, followed by prolonged weakness.
Using Historical Data Without Becoming Trapped By It Bitcoin has experienced multiple 20% to 30% pullbacks even within strong bull markets. In bear markets, those declines can persist for quarters, not just weeks or months. However, he stressed that preparing for a prolonged downturn does not mean assuming it must happen.
Despite presenting a bearish base case supported by historical metrics, Franzen was careful to make a point that history does not guarantee repetition. His approach is based on weighing probabilities, not certainties.
If the breakdown below the 2-day 200 MA cloud was the official bearish indication in November 2025, then a breakout back above that same structure would serve as a bullish signal. A reclaim of the 2-day 200 MA cloud and the 55-week moving average cloud at $99,000 is the line in the sand to turn constructive again.
