Polymarket has pulled a controversial market that had asked traders to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year, after the contract drew widespread backlash across social media.
The event, titled "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?” had attracted major trading activity on the prediction platform, with data visible on the site previously showing more than $838,000 in volume, with contracts tied to several timelines, including March 31, June 30, and before 2027.
"I think it's pretty clear we shouldn't have betting on nuclear weapons being used in a conflict," Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker told Decrypt.
"Whatever small amount of utility we might get from learning the probability of that happening is offset by how terrible it is to let people speculate on that outcome,” he said. “You can also send false signals on this if the market is thinly traded. And obviously, people profiting from inside information is grotesque."
Decrypt has reached out to Polymarket for comment.
In the hours before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, more than 150 accounts placed four-figure bets correctly predicting an American strike by the following day, a late surge totalling around $855,000, according to a New York Times analysis of Polymarket trading data.
Gouker warned that markets tied to death and war could make it harder for prediction markets to gain mainstream credibility, adding that many people may ultimately see the system as “an endeavour to enrich insiders as a result.”
"The problem is there is no regulation of Polymarket International," he said. "While Polymarket does have a regulated prediction market under the CFTC, that agency doesn't have any direct say over what happens at the international site.”
“And by allowing it to have a CFTC entity in the U.S., it seems to be tacit approval of the rest-of-world site,” the analyst added.
The CFTC has submitted an advance notice of proposed rulemaking to the President's budget office this week, the preliminary step that allows it to consult stakeholders before drafting formal rules.
