Bitcoin has spent the past two weeks in a war zone; not literally, but functionally. Since US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28, crypto markets have been held hostage by geopolitical shock, energy price chaos, and a global risk-off mood that has kept institutional conviction firmly on the sidelines.
Bitcoin Trading Under A Geopolitical Discount
Can The Bitcoin Price Surge Soon? Bitcoin tends to respond positively when macro conditions become more supportive of risk assets. Glassnode’s derivatives data shows that traders have already begun positioning for a possible recovery through improving profitability metrics, rising derivatives engagement, and persistent ETF inflows.
Futures open interest rose 5.1% to $29.4 billion, while perpetual CVD surged 201.7% to $172.6 million, which is a sign of strong buy-side activity in perpetual futures markets.
Options markets are also showing signs of a less defensive outlook. Options open interest climbed from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, while the volatility spread narrowed and the 25-delta skew has started declining.
ETF demand could also add to the next Bitcoin rally as the main source of demand. Glassnode reported that weekly net inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs rose from $776 million to $934 million, while ETF trading volumes increased from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion.
