Decentralized exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid (HYPE) is experiencing a notable surge in its key metrics, positioning itself as a preferred trading platform amid rising tensions in Iran.
This increased activity has propelled HYPE to outperform the market’s leading cryptocurrencies, boasting a major 23% gain over the past week. However, market analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that HYPE investors may soon encounter a new buying opportunity.
New Sell Signal For HyperliquidHowever, as of March 13, the same indicator is now flashing a sell signal, prompting Martinez to caution that increasing selling pressure could lead to a short-term retracement to around $34.
For Martinez, this potential pullback may serve as a strategic buying opportunity before the expected upward momentum resumes.
Ambitious Projections For HYPEUtilizing a three-year discounted cash flow (DCF) framework, each scenario assumes a gradual capture rate: 20% in Year 1 (2026), 50% in Year 2 (2027), and 100% by Year 3 (2028), reflecting the gradual process of building market share.
In a bear case scenario, where Hyperliquid captures just 0.01% of the market, HIP-3 could generate $32 million in annual fees at full ramp-up based on the conversion-adjusted TAM.
Under the base case of 0.10% market capture, Year 3 revenue from HIP-3 would climb to roughly $322 million, resulting in a total revenue of about $1.7 billion and an enterprise value nearing $22 billion. This would imply a token price around $72.
$190 In Most Optimistic CaseThe most optimistic case, positioned at a 1.00% capture, projects total Year 3 revenue of $4.6 billion, with an enterprise value of $59 billion and HYPE potentially valued at $190.
This suggests that the market has not fully appreciated the potential contributions from HIP-3 and is undervaluing the inherent value of Hyperliquid’s crypto exchange business.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
