Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets pushed the asset much deeper below its peak. The market collapse following the 2017 rally eventually erased about 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the bear market that followed the 2021 cycle bottomed near a 77% decline.
A review of the chart Jelle shared, which is shown below, illustrates just how consistent the cyclical structure has been. Since 2014, Bitcoin has oscillated through periods of sustained accumulation and declines. Each bull run lasts approximately 150 to 152 weeks, and each bear market persists for anywhere between 52 and 58 weeks.
The current bear phase, by that measure, is well short of the duration at which prior cycles found their floors. Projecting the bear market phase from the October 2025 all-time high would put the current correction lasting until sometime around October 2026.
“Unfortunately, I think there is more pain ahead for BTC,” Jelle said.
The RSI Is Telling Investors To WaitMore important, according to Jelle, is the pattern that forms near the end of a bear market. The final low usually appears when the RSI creates a higher low close to the level recorded during the previous bottom. That higher low can occur alongside either a lower price low or a higher price low.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
