A recent chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel on the social media platform X examined how Bitcoin has behaved during past US midterm election years to create a recurring pattern of price movement. Particularly, Bitcoin posted steep losses in each of the three completed midterm election years on record.
The first example appeared in 2014, when Bitcoin dropped by about 86% from its previous all-time high during the election year period. A similar development occurred in 2018, when the Bitcoin price action recorded another deep bear market, with Bitcoin falling about 84% from its peak.
The pattern appeared again in 2022, when Bitcoin declined roughly 77% from its previous cycle high. Each of these corrections took place around the same stage of the four-year market cycle that coincided with US midterm elections. As shown in the chart below, each of the previous cycles had bottomed one or two months after the midterm elections.
If the historical election cycle pattern repeats in a similar fashion, then Bitcoin’s price could still see one final phase of downside before the beginning of the next long-term recovery phase.
The projection presented by analyst Crypto Patel places a potential bottom in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, possibly occurring between November 2026 and February 2027. The more consequential argument in Crypto Patel’s analysis is not the projected drawdown but what might follow the bottom.
