Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation on Tuesday prohibiting prediction markets that hinge on government action or certain predetermined outcomes, arguing such wagers are turning America into a casino where the rich and powerful always win.
Murphy called out wagers that foresaw the U.S. striking Iran weeks ago, suggesting their lucrative timing on Polymarket was informed by people tied to the Trump administration. He noted that the bets were placed by accounts that popped up the day the wagers were made.
“People inside the White House or very close to the White House, with knowledge of the attack that was imminent, cashed in,” Murphy said. “That is fundamentally corrupt.”
Decrypt has reached out to the White House for comment.
Under the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, or BETS OFF Act, prediction markets tied to terrorism, assassinations, and war would be banned. The bill’s text includes restrictions on both users and those that “facilitate” the wagers, suggesting prediction market operators could be precluded from supporting them outside the U.S.
Decrypt has reached out to Murphy’s office for clarification.
The legislation also seeks to prevent wagers on “any event that is not financial, commercial, or economic” if the outcome stems from government action, is known in advance, or is controlled completely by an individual. As an example, a one-pager for the bill references prediction markets on the Super Bowl Halftime show or Academy Awards as being precluded.
Casar argued that the proliferation of prediction markets under Trump invites danger, with the potential for financial incentives to pervert decision-making within the West Wing.
“We shouldn't live in a country where government officials or well-connected people can make money off of secret information that is supposed to be used in the public interest,” he said. “We shouldn't live in a country where a foreign power can guess what Donald Trump is going to do next by going to a betting market.”
On Tuesday, Casar vocalized concerns that Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is developing its own prediction market, calling it “Trump’s very own corruption machine.”
“Needless to say, I don't think this administration is going to be cracking down on this form of corruption anytime soon, since they're cashing in on it,” he added. “The potential for corruption in these markets goes well beyond wars, and so does our bill.”
