The chart below shows Bitcoin moving in cycles, with each correction eventually cooling off near this long-term average before the beginning of a rally phase. Notably, the Bitcoin price action followed this same script in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each time, extended drawdowns ended only after Bitcoin touched or briefly dipped below the 200-week moving average.
The chart also adds a 14-month Relative Strength Index reading directly onto price via a color-coded dot system. Red dots highlight overbought euphoria around cycle peaks, while blue dots signal deeply oversold conditions consistent with capitulation bottoms. Green and yellow dots, on the other hand, populate the recovery and mid-cycle expansion phases in between.
If history holds, then the distance between the current price and a confirmed cycle bottom may be very small indeed. Bitcoin can either start a new rally from here or reverse from here to retest $60,000 again before embarking on the rally.
A Larger Breakout Structure Points To $500,000
