Morning Minute: Markets Tumble as Iran War Escalates

GM!

Today’s top news:

The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% as expected Wednesday, but the damage came before the decision even dropped.

February PPI printed at +0.7% month-over-month versus 0.3% expected, the hottest reading in months.

A big chunk of that is oil, and unfortunately, the oil woes do not seem to be behind us given even more escalations in the Iran War in the past day including strikes on multiple oil and gas facilities.

As for Powell’s commentary, he was no doomer by any means. He took the hard line stance that inflation needs to come down before any more rate cuts can resume. But he dismissed any mentions of stagflation, stating that the U.S. economy is far from facing stagflation, and commented positively about the economy overall.

Despite a neutral Powell, Bitcoin fell from $74K to ~$70,000 overnight, gold fell 5% to $4,700 and the Nasdaq finished down 1.5%.

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That means the S&P 500 index will be tradeable with leverage on Hyperliquid, perhaps as high as 20x+.

It follows Hyperliquid’s earlier expansion into gold, oil, and equity-linked perps (HIP-3), which now represent 5.5% of total platform volume at around $215M on Sunday. The HIP-3 open interest is nearing $1.5B, up ~6x since December 2025.

The HYPE token briefly soared on the news, reaching a new local high over $43 before settling closer to $41 amidst the broader crypto selloff.

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Lummis told the DC Blockchain Summit Wednesday that the Senate Banking Committee will hold a rescheduled markup in “the second half of April.” Sen. Moreno sharpened the stakes: “If we don’t get the Clarity Act passed by May, digital asset legislation will not pass for the foreseeable future.”

Congress goes home for Memorial Day recess May 21 and thus that is the actual cliff.

Senate Banking chair Tim Scott said Tuesday he expects compromise language on the stablecoin yield dispute this week; Lummis added that anything sounding like “banking product terminology” is off the table.

Sen. Gillibrand is still holding out for an ethics provision barring members of Congress and senior administration officials, “including the president and the vice president,” from issuing or promoting crypto while in office - likely a key sticking point.

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The exchange confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC in November, just after closing an $800M raise at a $20B valuation backed by Citadel Securities, Jane Street, and Tribe Capital.

But now they are waiting for market conditions to improve before proceeding.

For some IPO context: BitGo is the only crypto firm to list in 2026 so far and is down 44% from its IPO price. And Citi just downgraded Gemini from neutral to sell, as the GEMI stock is down 80% from IPO.

Securitize says it still plans to go public in Q2, but Kraken’s delay signals that even the biggest players are reading the room.

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Funds will flow through BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer, with distributions expected to hit accounts within one to three business days.

For those who have forgotten, the recovery payouts are at November 2022 asset prices, which means creditors who held Bitcoin at collapse (~$20K) are receiving dollar-equivalent recoveries, not coins, at a fraction of what BTC is worth today.

But at least they’re getting a better entry on any crypto rebuys than they were in 2025.

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