Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to global liquidity trends, according to new analysis from CF Benchmarks, even as macro headwinds tied to energy prices and monetary policy complicate the outlook for risk assets and economic growth.
Global M2 money supply has risen about 12% since mid-2025, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 35% over the same period, the Kraken-owned index provider said.
The divergence marks one of the largest gaps on record between Bitcoin and a metric long viewed by analysts as a proxy for global liquidity. Historically, expansions in money supply have filtered into risk assets, with Bitcoin often responding more sharply than equities.
“The key takeaway from more than a decade of data is that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin have historically been temporary,” Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, told Decrypt in an emailed statement.
That backdrop has limited capital flows into markets, leaving Bitcoin more closely tied to real rates and broader risk sentiment than to headline money supply growth.
At the same time, rising energy prices are adding pressure to household finances.
Markets have also focused on potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supply, and the resulting inflationary risks.
The combination risks dampening discretionary spending and reducing the pool of capital available for investment in higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and growth stocks, should prices remain high.
Still, most experts argue that global economic growth could accelerate again if financial conditions ease and the conflict in the Middle East is contained, providing a major tailwind for crypto.
Past cycles suggest Bitcoin tends to catch up with liquidity trends over a multi-quarter horizon, particularly when the Fed shifts toward rate cuts or slows balance-sheet reduction, according to CF Benchmarks.
The question is when?
Since the pandemic's post-stimulus measures under the Biden administration, inflation has continued to filter through and wreak havoc on prices for goods and services, while the central bank sought to slash its benchmark rate to boost growth.
Now, markets are contending with sticky inflation, foreign wars, and monetary tightening, leading to uncertainty among participants about the direction of risk assets. And crypto, which has mostly followed in lockstep with the Nasdaq, remains tied.
“An uptick in demand through the TradFi vehicles that helped drive Bitcoin to all-time highs, namely the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, would provide more direct, mechanical support for a trend reversal,” Selby said.
“Ongoing buying from these cohorts represents a source of structural demand that did not exist in prior cycles,” he added.
