Bitcoin Market Caution Rises After Failed Breakout: Glassnode Data

The Bitcoin market remains subject to high uncertainty, with bearish sentiments at heightened levels. In the last week, the premier cryptocurrency attempted another failed breakout as prices faced stiff resistance at the $75,000 level. With Bitcoin now back to around $70,000, Glassnode data on the options market shows that traders are pushing for more downside protection alongside expectations of low market volatility.

While a rise in OI typically represents an increase in market participation, Glassnode analysts explain that this recent positioning spike may still be indicative of short-term hedging flows. However,  the after-effects of quarterly expiry on March 27 would provide more clarity on the recent positioning spike and the long-term sentiment. 

Meanwhile, the 1-week Implied Volatility (IV) declined from 70% to 53%, while options with longer maturities are also down by ~10 vols. This indicates that options are anticipating less dramatic price swings, despite the unstable macro environment.

According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin Options Skew, which measures the demand difference between put options (bearish protection) and call options (bullish bets), has stabilized.  However, Bitcoin’s rejection at $75,000 has pushed the 25 Delta Skew into the 15-20% range, indicating increased put option demand. This development suggests a rise in market caution as options traders are paying a premium to protect against any potential downside.

This creeping market fear is further confirmed by the 24-hour taker flow chart, which shows that options traders’ positioning has now turned defensive. Puts Bought activity is dominating the flows chart with a 30.7% share, while Calls Bought accounts for around 20.9%. Meanwhile, the Put/Call Ratio had also indicated a potential rejection at $75,000. Put actions dominated flows activity above $72,000, indicating that traders lacked belief in the breakout. Following the pullback, traders attempted to buy the dip with a spike in call options, but it was short-lived.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $70,668 following a minor 0.33% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 17.30% and is now valued at $36.67 billion.