According to Daodu, energy prices remain the key link between the ongoing Middle East conflict and crypto market direction, and until they ease, inflation fears and interest-rate concerns will continue to cap risk assets.
Bitcoin, XRP Retrace Amid Oil‑Fueled Rate RisksThe Fed’s message on March 19 has pushed out expectations for easier monetary policy. When rate-cut prospects fade, capital rotates away from risk-on assets, and crypto, which still behaves like a high-risk asset, tends to suffer.
That 24/7 liquidity profile can lead to sharper moves in Bitcoin and XRP price following weekend or overnight headlines, as selling is concentrated into thinner markets, as Daodu noted in his report.
Brent Near $80–$85 Could Unlock Lasting GainsXRP, on the other hand, has maintained a roughly $1.35–$1.45 holding zone through recent escalations, reflecting resilience even as rallies fail to hold.
Crucially, Daodu argues that oil is the variable most likely to break the current pattern of short-lived crypto rallies. He noted that if Brent retreats toward $80–$85 on signs of a ceasefire or diplomatic progress, inflation pressures should ease and the Fed could regain room to consider rate cuts.
Conversely, if energy prices remain north of $100, every positive catalyst will be counterbalanced by the same inflation-and-rates dynamic that has dominated price action since February.
Daodu also reminded that several bullish fundamentals that existed before the conflict have not disappeared: the SEC’s movement toward treating Bitcoin as a commodity, inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and forward progress on the CLARITY Act.
Those catalysts are still in place but, in his view, are on hold until broader macro conditions — led by a decline in oil — allow risk assets to reassert themselves.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
