Push the date to April 30, and traders price in a 57% chance that operations are declared over. By June 30, that number reaches 78%. The money is clustered where belief is lowest. The confidence is highest where the timeline is longest.
FAQ What is the latest Iran peace proposal? A 15-point plan, reported by the New York Times, was delivered to Iran via Pakistan to end the conflict. What are Polymarket bettors saying about a ceasefire? Traders assign low odds to near-term peace but increasing probability as timelines extend into mid-2026. Has Trump confirmed negotiations with Iran? Yes, Trump said the U.S. is “in negotiations right now” following earlier military threats. How are markets reacting to Iran war developments? Oil has dipped, precious metals have edged higher, equities show tentative recovery, and crypto prices have gained.Iran Ceasefire Odds Climb on Polymarket as Trump Signals Negotiations With Tehran
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